The Academy Awards 2007: Predictions

After last year's upset win for Crash, this year is shaping up to be another very tight race. The nominations are split far and wide - Dreamgirls, the film with the most nominations has been overlooked for Best Picture and Best Director, a turn of events which surprised most of us (not that I'm complaining). The various critics' awards spread the love - with The Queen, The Departed, United 93, and Letters from Iwo Jima all featuring.

The Golden Globes gave Babel a push. The BAFTAs - which seem designed to boost British Oscar prospects - may have swung some momentum towards The Queen. And then there's Little Miss Sunshine… are we looking at another 'little movie that could', just like Crash? Let's hope not. For my money it's the overrated movie of the year (just like Crash).

Frankly, as far as Best Picture goes, it's anyone's guess. I have a gut feeling that this is Scorsese's year, even if this particular film is not one of his best. On the other hand I'm confident that most of the other categories are a foregone conclusion - and most of the BAFTA winners should be thinking of how best to rephrase their thanks.

So how is it going to pan out? What follows are my hunches, gripes, and educated guesses concerning the so-called 'major awards'. As far as the technical awards go, I'm hoping the unjustly sidelined Pan's Labyrinth and Children of Men pick up some well-deserves gold. Come next Monday morning it will be obvious how far off the mark I am.

Tom Charity
tom.charity@lovefilm.com

Best Picture

The Nominees: Babel, The Departed, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen

	The Departed

	Letters from Iwo Jima

Overlooked: Children of Men; The Good Shepherd; Little Children; Pan's Labyrinth; The Prestige; United 93

Best Director

The Nominees: Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima); Stephen Frears (The Queen); Paul Greengrass (United 93); Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)

	Martin Scorsese

	Clint Eastwood

Overlooked: Robert Altman (A Prairie Home Companion); Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men); Michel Gondry (The Science Of Sleep); Christopher Nolan (The Prestige); Guillermo del Toro (Pan's Labyrinth)

Best Actor

The Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond); Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson); Peter O'Toole (Venus); Will Smith (The Pursuit Of Happyness); Forest Whitaker (The Last King Of Scotland)

	Forest Whitaker

	Ryan Gosling

Overlooked: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat); Matt Damon (The Good Shepherd); Clive Owen (Children of Men); Ken Watanabe (Letters from Iwo Jima)

Best Actress

The Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Volver); Judi Dench (Notes On A Scandal); Helen Mirren (The Queen); Meryl Streep (The DEvil Wears Prada); Kate Winslet (Little Children)

	Helen Mirren

	Kate Winslet

Overlooked: Laura Dern (Inland Empire); Naomi Watts (The Painted Veil)

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine); Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children); Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond); Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls); Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

	Eddie Murphy

	Eddie Murphy

Overlooked: Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland); Adam Beach (Flags Of Our Fathers); Michael Caine (Children of Men); Danny Huston (The Proposition); Brad Pitt (Babel); Michael Sheen (The Queen)

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Adriana Barraza (Babel); Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal); Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine); Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls); Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)

	Jennifer Hudson

	Adriana Barraza

Overlooked: Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada); Vera Farmiga (The Departed); Diane Lane (Hollywoodland); Phyllis Somerville (Little Children)

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees: Babel; Letters from Iwo Jima; Little Miss Sunshine; Pan's Labyrinth; The Queen

	Little Miss Sunshine

	Pan's Labyrinth

Overlooked: The Good Shepherd; Hollywoodland; The Proposition; Talledega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees: Borat; Children of Men; The Departed; Little Children; Notes on a Scandal

	The Departed

	The Departed

Overlooked: The Prestige; The Pursuit of Happyness

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees: After the Wedding; Days of Glory (Indigenes); The Lives of Others; Pan's Labyrinth; Water

	Pan's Labyrinth

	Pan's Labyrinth

Overlooked: Volver; L'enfant (The Child); The Death Of Mr Lazarescu; Three Times

Best Animated Film

The Nominees: Cars; Happy Feet; Monster House

	Happy Feet

	Cars

Overlooked: Not a great year for animation!

Best Documentary Feature

The Nominees: Deliver Us from Evil; An Inconvenient Truth; Iraq in Fragments; Jesus Camp; My Country, My Country

	An Inconvenient Truth

	Iraq in Fragments

Overlooked: Grizzly Man